M
Mike_25
Guest
Ever wanna know if doubling down on that soft 18 is the right play or if you're better off hitting? The way to figure that out is calculating the expected value, or EV, of doubling down.
The EV tells you whether doubling down will get you further ahead in the long run versus other options. And in blackjack, it's all about tilting the advantage in your favor over the long haul. Here's how you calculate the EV of doubling down:
1. Estimate the deck position. Use cards dealt so far to guess how many tens, aces, kings, queens and jacks are left to help the dealer. If still a lot left,that helps your case for doubling. Fewer left, maybe find another move.
2. Figure the deck composure. Roughly how many tens, aces, kings, queens, jacks and tens are left to possibly be dealt? More tens/aces mean the dealer hits hard 20 more often. That hurts your double down case.
3. Consider your hand. Stronger the better to double down on. 20-21, strong 19? Perfect. Weak 16 or 12? Maybe look to hit instead.
4. Calculate win/loss outcomes. Win: You get a hand that beats the dealer (at least 19) before busting or the dealer busts. Your win equals bet amount won minus 2x bet. Loss: You bust, lose 2x bet. Good chance dealer wins with strong 20-21, lose 2x bet.
5. Put odds on each outcome. The outcomes where you win/lose more get higher odds. Use your judgment and card counts here.
6. Calculate EV for each outcome:
Win outcome: Prob * (Amount won - 2x bet)
Loss outcome: Prob * (Amount lost - 2x bet)
Add them up for the total EV.
7. If EV is positive, doubling down gives you an edge. If negative, walk away. Simple as that!
8. Consider subjective plays too like chip stack, position, player tendencies. EV determines if doubling stands on math alone. But the "soft skills" figure in as well.
Does this help explain how to calculate EV for doubling down in blackjack? Let me know if any other questions come up or if any part of the explanation could use more details. I'm here to give you the strategies, skills and math to gain an advantage at the table!
The EV tells you whether doubling down will get you further ahead in the long run versus other options. And in blackjack, it's all about tilting the advantage in your favor over the long haul. Here's how you calculate the EV of doubling down:
1. Estimate the deck position. Use cards dealt so far to guess how many tens, aces, kings, queens and jacks are left to help the dealer. If still a lot left,that helps your case for doubling. Fewer left, maybe find another move.
2. Figure the deck composure. Roughly how many tens, aces, kings, queens, jacks and tens are left to possibly be dealt? More tens/aces mean the dealer hits hard 20 more often. That hurts your double down case.
3. Consider your hand. Stronger the better to double down on. 20-21, strong 19? Perfect. Weak 16 or 12? Maybe look to hit instead.
4. Calculate win/loss outcomes. Win: You get a hand that beats the dealer (at least 19) before busting or the dealer busts. Your win equals bet amount won minus 2x bet. Loss: You bust, lose 2x bet. Good chance dealer wins with strong 20-21, lose 2x bet.
5. Put odds on each outcome. The outcomes where you win/lose more get higher odds. Use your judgment and card counts here.
6. Calculate EV for each outcome:
Win outcome: Prob * (Amount won - 2x bet)
Loss outcome: Prob * (Amount lost - 2x bet)
Add them up for the total EV.
7. If EV is positive, doubling down gives you an edge. If negative, walk away. Simple as that!
8. Consider subjective plays too like chip stack, position, player tendencies. EV determines if doubling stands on math alone. But the "soft skills" figure in as well.
Does this help explain how to calculate EV for doubling down in blackjack? Let me know if any other questions come up or if any part of the explanation could use more details. I'm here to give you the strategies, skills and math to gain an advantage at the table!
