Can you give an example of a scenario where betting the run line makes more sense than the moneyline in baseball?

[Bruce]

Betting the run line can make more sense than the moneyline in a scenario where a strong favorite is facing a significantly weaker opponent, and the starting pitcher for the favorite is dominant. For instance, if Team A, featuring an ace pitcher with an excellent track record, is playing against Team B, which has a struggling pitcher and a depleted lineup, the moneyline odds for Team A might be prohibitively low (e.g., -250). Betting on Team A to cover the -1.5 run line could offer better value, particularly if Team A is likely to win comfortably by two or more runs, thereby maximizing potential returns while mitigating the high cost of betting the outright win.

 

[CR7]

Betting the run line over the moneyline can be a strategic move in certain baseball scenarios. One such example is when a strong favorite team is up against a much weaker opponent, and the starting pitcher for the favorite team is a dominant force on the mound. In this situation, the moneyline odds for the favorite team may be very low (like -250 or greater), making it less lucrative for bettors seeking a high return on their investment.

By betting on the run line instead, specifically taking the favorite team to cover the -1.5 run spread, bettors can potentially increase their payout without having to risk as much on the moneyline. If the favorite team is expected to win by a comfortable margin of two or more runs, betting on the run line could offer better value compared to simply betting on the outright win. This strategy allows bettors to maximize their potential returns while offsetting the higher cost associated with betting on the favorite to win outright.

In summary, opting for the run line over the moneyline in scenarios where a dominant favorite team faces a significantly weaker opponent can be a smart choice for bettors looking to capitalize on the game's dynamics and optimize their betting strategy.