M
Mike_25
Guest
The pot's already up to 50 bucks after a couple callers and it's your turn in late position with AK.
The guys calling here are the type to chase any piece of action or draw, so if more call after you, this pot could triple easy to 150 bucks.
Folding AK gains an extra 10, plus saves you from likely ending up in a 150 buck pot or bigger with no equity against their junk. Some other points to ponder:
• Your stack's only around 200 bucks total. Ballooning to 300+ is dangerous, even if the 10 BB from folding means not gaining ground now. Saving extra money and staying under max stack sizes is always +EV long term.
• AK could improve to the nuts, but most flops end up with a ton of jackpots, heart draws or overpairs still in that can crush your lone queen kicker. Probability of ending up confused or beaten is higher than becoming clear winner.
• Multiple other chances to play AK profitably likely come before any potential showdown. Gaining more position and larger stack prestige enables launching bigger operations, worth more than any single pot.
• Perceived as a "weak" fold but margins count. Your game is calculated, not desperate, making shrewd plays to maximize profitably for your position, not any one pot. Respected players discern methodology, even behind "weak" decisions.
• Conditions like drunks/aggression factor in. If advantage would stand to be yours, AK provides play but not +EV weighted by sheer volatility of drunk/aggro action likely resulting. Solid theoretical play trumps potential chaos.
While AK provides participation, staying disabled from terrible post-flop action that resembles a disaster more than a strategic poker play emerges as smarter strategy here. Your time and money should chase $EV through sound decisions, not wild chance. Thoughts of prestige from any single battle should not cloud shrewder war strategy.
The guys calling here are the type to chase any piece of action or draw, so if more call after you, this pot could triple easy to 150 bucks.
Folding AK gains an extra 10, plus saves you from likely ending up in a 150 buck pot or bigger with no equity against their junk. Some other points to ponder:
• Your stack's only around 200 bucks total. Ballooning to 300+ is dangerous, even if the 10 BB from folding means not gaining ground now. Saving extra money and staying under max stack sizes is always +EV long term.
• AK could improve to the nuts, but most flops end up with a ton of jackpots, heart draws or overpairs still in that can crush your lone queen kicker. Probability of ending up confused or beaten is higher than becoming clear winner.
• Multiple other chances to play AK profitably likely come before any potential showdown. Gaining more position and larger stack prestige enables launching bigger operations, worth more than any single pot.
• Perceived as a "weak" fold but margins count. Your game is calculated, not desperate, making shrewd plays to maximize profitably for your position, not any one pot. Respected players discern methodology, even behind "weak" decisions.
• Conditions like drunks/aggression factor in. If advantage would stand to be yours, AK provides play but not +EV weighted by sheer volatility of drunk/aggro action likely resulting. Solid theoretical play trumps potential chaos.
While AK provides participation, staying disabled from terrible post-flop action that resembles a disaster more than a strategic poker play emerges as smarter strategy here. Your time and money should chase $EV through sound decisions, not wild chance. Thoughts of prestige from any single battle should not cloud shrewder war strategy.