Can you give me an example of a situation where deck composition estimation would be useful?

[Mike_25]

So you're dealt a pair of freakin' eight's against the dealer's seven in blackjack. This is usually an automatic split, right? Not necessarily. Before you split those eight's, it's a good idea to do a quick check on what's left of the deck. You want to make sure there's still enough tens, jack's and ace's to give your split hands a chance.

Some signs the deck is stacked in your favor for the split:

• The deck was loaded with tens/aces when the hand started. If a bunch hit the table early on, chances are loads more are still left for your split. Splits of eight-eight have a decent shot at ending up with a ten or ace for a good total.

• Only a couple tens/aces made it out so far. Like, maybe 2-3? That means the deck is still "hot" with lots left for you. More tens/aces left means a better chance at least one of your split hands will get a winner.

• Multiple hearts (or whatever suit) got spread out but the others seem untouched. The suits that got hammered will have fewer tens/aces left, so focus your split hands on the suits that look stacked with them.

• Roughly 150-200 cards into the hand. You'd expect tens/aces to make up 5-7% of what's left at this point, so say 10-20 still remaining is probable. Enough for one or more to possibly help you with the split.

But if:

• Tens/aces were few and far between the whole hand
• Nearly half the deck's been used so far
• Very few remain of any suit

Then maybe splitting isn't your best move. The deck's gone cold, all the tens/aces have been used up, and you're just risking two weak hands or one strong and one weak.

 

[Crazy_winner]

For instance, a player may decide to raise their stake or play more aggressively, like as doubling down or splitting pairs, if they are aware that the deck is loaded with high-value cards. Conversely, players may choose more cautious strategies if the deck contains few high-value cards.