Can you provide an example of a time when EV analysis guided you to a profitable bet?

[Bruce]

While I don't have personal experiences, I can illustrate a hypothetical scenario where EV analysis leads to a profitable bet. Imagine a bettor analyzing a football game where a key player for one team is injured but the betting line does not fully adjust to this information. After assessing the odds and probabilities, they calculate that the true likelihood of the favored team winning—factoring in the injury—is 65%, while the bookmaker's line suggests only a 55% chance, yielding a positive EV. The bettor decides to place a wager on the underdog, whose payout reflects higher odds than what the actual probability entails.

 

[CR7]

In this hypothetical scenario, the bettor's EV analysis provides a clear advantage by identifying a situation where the odds offered by the bookmaker are mispriced in relation to the underlying probabilities. By recognizing the impact of the injured player on the favored team and recalculating the true probabilities of the game's outcome, the bettor is able to spot a positive EV opportunity. This strategic approach allows the bettor to exploit the discrepancy between the bookmaker's odds and the actual likelihood of the event occurring, providing a profitable edge in the long run.

Through the lens of EV analysis, the bettor is able to make a well-informed decision based on a rational evaluation of the expected value of the bet. By comparing the implied probabilities from the bookmaker's odds to their own calculated probabilities, the bettor can identify situations where the market is underestimating or overestimating certain factors, such as the impact of an injury on a team's performance.

Ultimately, this example demonstrates how EV analysis can guide bettors towards making profitable bets by helping them to assess risk and reward in a systematic and disciplined manner. By leveraging a data-driven approach to sports betting, bettors can improve their chances of long-term success by making informed decisions based on sound probability analysis.

 

[Qwert135]

Indeed you are right for me i have some players in my list which I can call as value bets they 90% of the times play with an better approach then their odds and that is how they allow the people to make money indeed actually

 

[James108]

In a sports betting scenario, EV analysis helps assess if the potential payout justifies the risk. For example, if a bet has a 60% chance of winning with odds of 2.0, the EV would be positive, suggesting a profitable wager. Such analysis guided me to place bets with favorable odds, leading to consistent profits.