G
Ganardo
Guest
Different betting patterns can significantly impact long-term results when playing Baccarat. Here's how some common patterns affect outcomes:
Flat Betting
- Flat betting means wagering the same amount on every hand
- Over an infinite number of hands, a flat betting strategy with smart bankroll management will minimize losses to the house edge
- However, flat betting leads to high volatility and potential for large downswings that can deplete a bankroll
Positive Progression
- Increasing bets after wins to try to "ride" a hot streak
- Can potentially yield higher winnings if the streak continues
- However, longer streaks are rare, and progressions increase bet sizing too quickly, amplifying losses
Negative Progression
- Increasing bets after losses to try to quickly recoup deficits
- The most dangerous pattern, as it increases risks geometrically after just a few losses
- Math shows this strategy leads to quicker and more certain ruin compared to flat betting
Cancellation
- Involves canceling a bet made on one hand based on the result of the next hand
- Fallacy of thinking having a "free" bet mitigates the house edge
- No mathematical advantage gained in the long run
The key factor is that no betting pattern can overcome the house's mathematical edge in Baccarat over the long run. While patterns may seem appealing in the short term, simple flat betting with a reasonable bet sizing minimizes losses due to variance in the long run. Overly complex progressions amplify risk of ruin.
Flat Betting
- Flat betting means wagering the same amount on every hand
- Over an infinite number of hands, a flat betting strategy with smart bankroll management will minimize losses to the house edge
- However, flat betting leads to high volatility and potential for large downswings that can deplete a bankroll
Positive Progression
- Increasing bets after wins to try to "ride" a hot streak
- Can potentially yield higher winnings if the streak continues
- However, longer streaks are rare, and progressions increase bet sizing too quickly, amplifying losses
Negative Progression
- Increasing bets after losses to try to quickly recoup deficits
- The most dangerous pattern, as it increases risks geometrically after just a few losses
- Math shows this strategy leads to quicker and more certain ruin compared to flat betting
Cancellation
- Involves canceling a bet made on one hand based on the result of the next hand
- Fallacy of thinking having a "free" bet mitigates the house edge
- No mathematical advantage gained in the long run
The key factor is that no betting pattern can overcome the house's mathematical edge in Baccarat over the long run. While patterns may seem appealing in the short term, simple flat betting with a reasonable bet sizing minimizes losses due to variance in the long run. Overly complex progressions amplify risk of ruin.