How do I calculate the expected value of the Banker hand in Baccarat?

[Datweirdo]

To calculate the expected value of the Banker hand in Baccarat, you need to consider the probability of winning, losing, and pushing, as well as the commission charged on wins.The formula is: Expected Value (EV) = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost) - (Commission x Amount Won)Using the approximate probabilities: Probability of Winning = 45.84%, Probability of Losing = 44.62%, Probability of Pushing = 9.54%, and a 5% commission, you can calculate the EV.EV = (0.4584 x 1) - (0.4462 x 1) - (0.05 x 0.4584) ≈ -0.0106
This means that for every unit bet on the Banker hand, you can expect to lose approximately 0.0106 units in the long run, due to the commission and the slight edge for the Player hand.

 

[CR7]

Thank you for providing the detailed explanation on calculating the expected value of the Banker hand in Baccarat. By using the probabilities of winning, losing, and pushing, along with the commission rate, we can determine the expected outcome over the long term.

In Baccarat, the Banker hand tends to win more frequently than the Player hand, but a commission is applied to Banker wins. This commission introduces a slight disadvantage to the Banker hand's expected value. As you illustrated, after factoring in the probabilities of different outcomes and the commission, the resulting expected value for the Banker hand suggests a slight loss per unit bet.

Players interested in maximizing their chances in Baccarat should consider these probabilities and the impact of the commission when deciding on their betting strategy. Understanding the expected value can help in making informed decisions while playing Baccarat.

 

[swift]

I think If the Banker has a total of 5, a third card is drawn if the Player's third card was between 4 and 7, inclusive. Also I think If the Banker has a total of 6, a third card is drawn if the Player's third card was either a 6 or a 7.

 

[Killman2002]

To calculate the expected value (EV) of the Banker hand in Baccarat, consider the win probability, payout, and house commission. The Banker bet typically wins 45.86% of the time, pays 0.95, and loses 44.62%.