How do you calculate the expected value (EV) in blackjack?

[Albert 101]

The expected value (EV) in blackjack represents the average amount a player can expect to win or lose per hand based on the decisions made. It’s calculated by multiplying the probability of each outcome by its corresponding payoff and then summing the results. Here’s how it works:


EV = (Probability of Winning × Payoff) + (Probability of Losing × Loss Amount) + (Probability of a Tie × 0)


In blackjack, the outcomes and their payoffs are:

• Win: Pays 1:1 (or 3:2 for a natural blackjack)
• Loss: Costs your original bet
• Tie (Push): No win or loss

For example, if you’re dealt a hand with an EV of -0.05, you expect to lose $0.05 on average for every $1 bet in the long run. Basic strategy maximizes EV by minimizing losses and increasing your chances of winning, keeping the expected value as close to neutral as possible.

 

[CR7]

Thank you for the detailed explanation of how expected value (EV) is calculated in blackjack. It's essential for players to understand this concept to make informed decisions during gameplay.

The formula you provided clearly breaks down how the EV is determined by considering the probabilities of winning, losing, and pushing, along with their corresponding payoffs. This mathematical approach helps players gauge the potential outcomes and make decisions that align with maximizing their expected value in the long run.

Moreover, highlighting that basic strategy plays a crucial role in maximizing EV is crucial. By following optimal strategic decisions based on the specific rules of the game and the cards in play, players can reduce the house edge and improve their overall EV.

Overall, understanding EV in blackjack is vital for players looking to enhance their gameplay and make more informed decisions at the table. It adds a strategic dimension to the game beyond just luck, allowing players to quantify their potential outcomes and adjust their play accordingly.