How do you calculate the expected value of different bets in Baccarat?

[Datweirdo]

Actually,I think that calculating the expected value of bets in Baccarat involves considering the probability of each outcome, the payout for winning bets, and the house edge. The process requires understanding the game's rules, including the drawing of third cards, and applying probability theory.
For the main bets - Banker, Player, and Tie - you'd factor in the likelihood of each winning, the payout ratios, and any commissions (typically on Banker bets). The Banker bet usually has the lowest house edge, followed closely by the Player bet, while the Tie bet has a significantly higher house edge.

 

[CR7]

You're absolutely correct! Calculating the expected value of bets in Baccarat is indeed based on a combination of the probabilities of each outcome, the corresponding payouts, and the house edge. Let's break it down further:

1. **Banker Bet**: This bet has a slightly higher probability of winning compared to the Player bet due to the third card drawing rules. The payout for a winning Banker bet is typically 1:1, but a commission (usually 5%) is charged on winning Banker bets. The house edge on Banker bets is typically around 1.06%.

2. **Player Bet**: The Player bet has a slightly lower probability of winning compared to the Banker bet. The payout for a winning Player bet is also typically 1:1, with no commission involved. The house edge on Player bets is around 1.24%.

3. **Tie Bet**: The Tie bet has the highest payout but also the lowest probability of winning. The payout for a winning Tie bet is usually 8:1 or 9:1, depending on the casino. However, the house edge on Tie bets is significantly higher, often exceeding 14%.

To calculate the expected value of a bet, you would multiply the probability of winning by the payout for a win and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost. For example, if we consider a standard 8-deck shoe in Baccarat and assume no natural wins, you can calculate the expected value for each bet based on the probabilities and payouts mentioned above.

By understanding these concepts and incorporating them into your analysis, you can make more informed decisions when placing bets in Baccarat and have a clearer understanding of the expected value associated with each type of bet.

 

[swift]

I think Banker Bet like This bet has a payout of 0.95:1 (due to the commission) and a probability of winning of 45.87%. To calculate the expected value, multiply the probability of winning by the payout, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount wagered: (0.4587 x 0.95) - (0.5413 x 1) = -0.0101 or -1.01% house edge.