Variance in blackjack measures how much the results of the game deviate from the expected outcome. It is calculated by first determining the expected value (EV) of each possible outcome based on the probabilities of winning, losing, or pushing against the dealer. Then, for each outcome, the difference between the actual outcome and the expected value is squared, weighted by its probability, and summed up. This process gives an indication of the risk and variability involved in playing the game, helping players understand the potential swings in their bankroll.