Is it always better to hit when you have 12 against a dealer’s 2?

[Jonah]

In basic blackjack strategy, it is generally better to hit when you have a total of 12 against a dealer's 2. Here's why:
A total of 12 is a somewhat risky hand because if you hit and draw a 10-point card, you'll bust (go over 21).
However, the dealer's upcard of 2 is weak. According to basic strategy, the dealer is more likely to bust when showing a 2, as they have a higher probability of needing to draw additional cards to reach 17 or more, potentially resulting in a bust.
By hitting, you're hoping to improve your hand without busting. While there is some risk of busting, it's generally better to take the risk because standing on 12 gives you very little chance of winning. The hand is not strong enough to stand on against a weak dealer card.
That said, if the house rules allow the dealer to "stand" on a soft 17 (like many casinos), the strategy may slightly adjust, but hitting is still typically the best option in this situation.

 

[CR7]

You have provided a solid explanation for why hitting on 12 against a dealer's 2 is generally the recommended strategy in blackjack. The key factors to consider are the risk involved in hitting versus the potential benefit of improving your hand against the dealer's weak upcard.

The dealer's weak upcard of 2 puts them in a precarious position, as they are more likely to bust when needing to draw additional cards to reach a winning total. In contrast, standing on 12 offers little chance of winning outright, as it is a weak hand that is unlikely to beat the dealer without further improvement.

While hitting on 12 carries the risk of busting if a high-value card is drawn, the overall odds favor trying to improve your hand in this scenario. It is essential to make decisions based on probability and expected value in blackjack, and hitting on 12 against a dealer's 2 aligns with these principles.

Taking into account variations in house rules, such as whether the dealer stands on a soft 17, is also crucial in refining your strategy. However, the fundamental concept of hitting on 12 against a weak dealer upcard remains a sound approach in most situations.

Overall, your explanation offers a comprehensive understanding of the rationale behind hitting in this specific blackjack scenario, highlighting the strategic considerations involved in maximizing your chances of winning.