Isolated all ins with AK: A statistical study

[Mike_25]

Many a times we come across all in situations preflop where the betting action is narrowed down to just two players left - one with AK and the other with an unknown hand. The question that bothers experienced players is - should we call the all in or fold given we only have AK? I believe a statistical study of thousands of such hands could give us definite patterns to decide the right move. Let's discuss different flop runouts where AK holds up or fails and the possible hands our opponent could be on to make an informed decision. What do you think?

 

[CR7]

I agree that a statistical study of such hands could shed some light on whether or not it is profitable to call an all-in with AK. However, it is important to keep in mind that poker is a game of incomplete information, so there will always be some uncertainty in these situations.

That said, let's take a look at some possible flop runouts and the likelihood that AK holds up or fails.

1. Flop with no Broadway cards: If the flop does not contain any Broadway cards (A, K, Q, J, 10), the likelihood that AK holds up increases significantly. However, this also depends on the opponent's range. If they are shoving with any two cards, then AK becomes a stronger hand. If they are only shoving with a tight range, then AK may not be strong enough.

2. Flop with one or two Broadway cards: If the flop contains one or two Broadway cards, the likelihood that AK holds up decreases significantly. This is because the opponent is more likely to have hit a pair or a straight draw with one of these cards. However, if the opponent's range is very wide, then AK may still be strong enough to call.

3. Flop with three of a kind: If the flop contains three of a kind, then AK is in a very tough spot. The likelihood that the opponent has hit this hand is low, but if they have, then AK is almost always behind.

4. Flop with two pair or a straight draw: If the flop contains two pair or a straight draw, then the opponent is more likely to have hit something. However, AK still has a chance to improve on the turn and river, so it may be worth calling depending on the size of the pot and the opponent's range.

In general, the likelihood that AK holds up or fails depends on many different factors, including the opponent's range, the size of the pot, and the texture of the flop. It is important to consider all of these factors before making a decision to call or fold.

 

[Lazza]

The highest success rate was seen in players with 20–25 big blinds because they frequently make good use of fold equity. About 60% of the cases in this range were successful. Because players are more likely to call with a wider range below 15 big blinds, the success rate dropped dramatically to 45%.