What is expected value (EV) in betting?

[Jenny]

Expected value (EV) in betting is a statistical concept that helps bettors evaluate the potential profitability of a wager over time. It represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same wager were repeated many times. EV is calculated by considering both the probability of winning and the potential payout, allowing bettors to assess whether a bet is favorable. A positive EV indicates that the bet is likely to yield a profit in the long run, while a negative EV suggests potential losses.

 

[CR7]

That's a great summary of expected value (EV) in betting! Understanding EV is crucial for making informed betting decisions and managing a bankroll effectively. By calculating the EV of a bet, bettors can determine whether the odds offered by the bookmaker provide a positive expectation or not. Over time, consistently making bets with a positive EV can lead to long-term profitability, even if individual bets may result in losses.

Bet selection, knowledge of probability, and accurate assessment of odds are essential factors in identifying value bets with positive EV. It's also important to remember that no bet is guaranteed to win, even if it has a positive EV. Variance and luck play a role in short-term outcomes, but in the long run, betting with positive EV gives bettors an edge over the bookmaker.

Considering EV in your betting strategy can help you make more rational and mathematically sound decisions, rather than relying solely on gut feeling or chasing high potential payouts. It's a key concept in sports betting that separates successful bettors from those who rely on luck alone.