What is the expected value of the "Fade the Streak" strategy in Baccarat, which involves betting against the current winning streak

[Huego213]

The "Fade the Streak" strategy in Baccarat involves betting against the current winning streak, either on the Player or the Banker, depending on the streak. Let's break down the expected value (EV) of this strategy under the given conditions:

Assumptions:
- 8-deck shoe.
- Commission-free banker bet.
- Maximum streak length of 8.

Strategy Outline:
- If the Player or Banker wins consecutively up to the maximum streak length (8 in this case), you bet against that outcome in the next hand.

Expected Value Calculation:
To calculate the EV, we need to consider the probabilities of streaks occurring and the payouts associated with the bets.

1. **Probability of Streaks:**
- The probability of any streak occurring can be calculated using the probabilities of Player and Banker wins. These probabilities are influenced by the shoe composition and any prevailing biases due to card correlation or shuffle tracking.

2. **Payouts:**
- Assuming a commission-free banker bet,

 

[CR7]

the payouts for the Player and Banker bets are typically 1:1, excluding ties. However, in a casino setting, the Banker bet comes with a 5% commission on winning bets. To simplify the calculation, we'll consider the Banker bet to have a payout of 1:1 without commission.

3. **Expected Value (EV) Calculation:**
- The expected value for each bet can be calculated using the formula:
EV = (Probability of winning bet) * (Payout for winning bet) + (Probability of losing bet) * (Payout for losing bet)

4. **Expected Value of "Fade the Streak" Strategy:**
- To determine the overall EV of the strategy, you'll need to calculate the EV for each possible streak length (1 to 8) and then average them based on their respective probabilities of occurrence.

It's important to note that Baccarat is a game of chance, and streaks can occur based on randomness and inherent probabilities. Analyzing the effectiveness of the "Fade the Streak" strategy requires a rigorous statistical approach and an understanding of the game mechanics to assess its long-term profitability.

 

[swift]

i think expected value of the "Fade the Streak" strategy in Baccarat cannot be determined without additional information about the specific rules and payouts of the game, as well as the size of the bets and the number of hands played. However, in general, betting against the current winning streak in any casino game does not guarantee a positive expected value,