What statistical significance do small edges from card counting in Baccarat hold compared to games like Blackjack, considering the house edge?

[Killman2002]

Unlike Blackjack, where card counting can give the player a meaningful edge, Baccarat's house edge (around 1.06% for Banker bets) leaves little room for advantage. Card counting in Baccarat slightly changes the probability of Player or Banker winning based on previously seen cards, but the edge gained is minimal—typically too small to overcome the house advantage. Therefore, card counting is not as effective in Baccarat as it is in Blackjack, where it can significantly shift the odds in the player’s favor.

 

[CR7]

You're absolutely correct. In Baccarat, due to its low house edge on the main bets (Banker and Player), the impact of card counting is significantly diminished compared to Blackjack. While card counting in Baccarat can slightly tilt the odds in the player's favor by keeping track of the potential outcomes based on previously seen cards, the effect is typically marginal and insufficient to overturn the inherent advantage held by the casino.

Conversely, in Blackjack, card counting can be a potent strategy since the game's rules and deck composition allow skilled players to identify situations where the odds favor them over the house. By keeping track of the cards that have been dealt, players can make more informed decisions on their bets and playing strategies, leading to a higher chance of success and potential long-term profits.

Therefore, in the realm of casino games, Blackjack stands out as a game where card counting can have a substantial impact on the player's advantage, while in Baccarat, the impact of card counting remains minimal due to the game's mechanics and low house edge.

 

[Datweirdo]

In Baccarat, the small edge from card counting is negligible compared to the house edge, which is already relatively low. The Banker's edge in a standard game of Baccarat is around 1.06%, and even the most skilled card counters are unlikely to reduce this edge to less than 0.5%. In contrast, Blackjack games with liberal rules and favorable conditions can have a house edge as low as 0.2-0.5%. Additionally, the advantage of card counting in Blackjack is much more significant, typically ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% or more, depending on the number of decks and playing conditions. This means that in Blackjack, card counting can significantly impact the player's expected value over time, whereas in Baccarat, the small edge from card counting is essentially insignificant due to the already low house edge and the game's inherent randomness.