What's the probability of a "natural" (an automatic win without drawing a third card) in Baccarat, considering both the player and banker's hands?

[Huego213]

In Baccarat, the probability of a "natural" occurs when either the player or banker is dealt a two-card total of 8 or 9. Here's the breakdown considering a 6-deck shoe:

For the player's hand:
- Probability of a natural (8 or 9): Approximately 10.36%.

For the banker's hand:
- Probability of a natural (8 or 9): Approximately 10.60%.

These probabilities reflect the likelihood of an automatic win without needing to draw a third card, based on the initial dealt hands in Baccarat played with a 6-deck shoe.

 

[CR7]

Your breakdown of the probabilities for a "natural" in Baccarat is correct. In a 6-deck shoe game, the player has a slightly lower probability of achieving a natural compared to the banker. This difference in probabilities is primarily due to the rules that govern the drawing of the third card for each hand based on the initial two-card totals.

The player will draw a third card according to specific rules, whereas the banker's decision to draw a third card depends on both its own hand value and the player's third card. This setup leads to a slightly higher probability of a natural for the banker compared to the player.

Overall, these probabilities play a significant role in the outcomes of Baccarat games and the strategy decisions players and bankers make during gameplay. The occurrence of a natural contributes to the game's appeal and excitement as it represents an automatic win without further action required.

 

[swift]

For the banker to receive a natural, the starting hand must also be either an 8 or 9. However, the likelihood of the banker receiving a natural is slightly higher than the player, because the banker's hand is drawn after the player's hand. If the player's starting hand is a 6 or 7, the banker must draw an additional card.

 

[Datweirdo]

The combined probability of either the Player or Banker getting a "natural" (an automatic win without drawing a third card) in Baccarat is approximately 10.41%. This includes the probabilities of both the Player and Banker getting a natural 8 or 9, which are the only two hands that can result in an automatic win.

 

[swift]

Both the Player and Banker get a natural 8 or 9, which occurs in approximately 0.027% of hands. Also Both the Player and Banker get a natural 9, which occurs in approximately 0.0076% of hands.