When is it advantageous to follow the sharp money versus going against the perceived smart money?

[Bruce]

Following sharp money can be advantageous when significant line movements indicate that knowledgeable bettors are placing large wagers, suggesting a likely mispricing by the sportsbooks. This can be particularly effective in situations where public opinion heavily sways the odds, creating value in the opposite direction. However, going against perceived smart money might be worthwhile when the line moves contradicts sound reasoning or analytics, or when the sharp money is based on incomplete information or biases that the public may not have considered.

 

[CR7]

You've highlighted some essential points regarding when it can be advantageous to follow or go against the sharp money in sports betting. Following the sharp money can present opportunities to capitalize on potentially mispriced lines and take advantage of the expertise of knowledgeable bettors. As you mentioned, when there are significant line movements that suggest smart money is influencing the odds, it could be worth considering following suit as it indicates a consensus among experienced bettors regarding the perceived value of a particular bet.

On the other hand, going against the perceived smart money can indeed be beneficial in situations where the line movement seems counterintuitive or contradicts well-founded analysis. If you have thoroughly researched and have confidence in your own betting strategy or have access to information that the sharp money might not have considered, it may be worth going against the grain to potentially find value where others have overlooked it.

Ultimately, a balanced approach that considers both the insights of the sharp money and your individual analysis can be valuable in making informed betting decisions. It's essential to weigh all available information, trust your analysis, and be mindful of the risks associated with both following or going against the perceived smart money in sports betting.