How do I calculate the expected value of a moneyline bet?

[Mike_25]

Calculating the expected value (EV) of a moneyline bet involves a few simple steps:

1. Determine the moneyline odds for the favorite and underdog teams. For example, favorite team is -150 and underdog team is +120.

2. Convert the odds into implied probabilities. For -150, the implied probability the favorite wins is 66.7% (1/-150). For +120, the implied probability the underdog wins is 45.4% (120/121).

3. Multiply the payout odds by their respective implied probabilities.

For the favorite at -150:
•66.7% implied probability to win
•Must win to get paid, so payout = $100 bet
•So EV = 66.7% * $100 = $67

For the underdog at +120:
•45.4% implied probability to win
•$120 payout if they win
•So EV = 45.4% * $120 = $54

4. Add the EV from the favorite and underdog together to get the total EV.
In this example, the total EV is $67 + $54 = $121

5. If the total EV is greater than the amount bet, then this is a profitable matchup based on the odds. If the total EV is less than the amount bet, then this matchup will likely lead to a loss over time.

Some additional notes:

•EV becomes more favorable to one side as the moneyline odds get wider (like -250 vs +200). This shows the market perceives a clear favorite.

•Multiple bets at different moneyline odds can be combined to improve the total EV. Look for bets with higher EV potential.

•EV is a long-term concept. A single bet outcome does not prove or disprove whether a side had the positive EV. Recreational gamblers need to be aware that short-term fortunes do not always reflect fair EV.

•As with any gambling, ROI and responsible betting remain the most important goals. Only risk money that can afford to be lost.

 

[Hasan77]

To calculate the expected value of a moneyline bet, you need to consider the implied probability and the potential payout. The expected value is a measure of the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet in the long run.

Here's the formula to calculate the expected value:

Expected Value = (Probability of Winning * Potential Win Amount) - (Probability of Losing * Bet Amount)

Convert the moneyline odds to implied probability: Moneyline odds represent the payout for a winning bet based on a $100 wager. Positive moneyline odds indicate the potential profit if you bet $100, while negative odds represent the amount you need to bet to win $100.

 

[Baniro]

To calculate the expected value of a moneyline bet, you need to consider the probability of winning and losing the bet along with the associated payouts. The expected value represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long run.

 

[Crazy_winner]

Utilize sound bankroll management techniques to reduce risks and safeguard your betting funds. Based on your belief in the value bet and the anticipated return on investment, choose your wager size. Avoid making sizable wagers based only on perceived value without taking other aspects into account.

 

[Lazza]

The moneyline odds can be converted into implied probabilities using a formula. The formula is Implied Probability = (|Moneyline Odds|) / (|Moneyline Odds| + 100) for negative odds. Implied Probability = 100 / (Moneyline Odds + 100) is the formula for positive odds.

 

[Killman2002]

Assess the likelihood of the outcome. You can use the implied probability formula for favorites (odds / (odds + 100) x 100) or underdogs (100 / (odds + 100) x 100). Determine how much you stand to win from a wager. This depends on the odds and your bet amount.

 

[Akuta]

The expected value of a moneyline bet is the average return you can expect to earn from a large number of independent bets, assuming the probability of each outcome is the same as the market odds. Here's a step-by-step guide to calculate the expected value:

1. Determine the moneyline odds:
Get the moneyline odds for the event you're interested in. For example, let's say the odds are:

* Team A: -150 (favored team)
* Team B: +130 (underdog)

2. Convert the odds to decimal format:
To make calculations easier, convert the odds to decimal format by dividing the odds by 100 (or multiplying by 0.01). For example:

* Team A: -150 -> 0.6667 (1 / 1.50)
* Team B: +130 -> 1.3000 (1.30)

3. Calculate the probability of each outcome:
Assuming the market odds are accurate, you can use them as an estimate of the probability of each outcome. For example:

* Team A: 66.67% (0.6667)
* Team B: 33.33% (0.3000)

4. Calculate the expected value:
Multiply the probability of each outcome by the return on investment (ROI) for that outcome. The ROI is simply the payout minus the initial bet.

For Team A:

* Probability: 0.6667
* ROI: 1 - (initial bet / payout) = 1 - (1 / 1.50) = 0.3333
* Expected value: 0.6667 x 0.3333 = 0.2222

For Team B:

* Probability: 0.3000
* ROI: 1 - (initial bet / payout) = 1 - (1 / 1.30) = -0.2308
* Expected value: 0.3000 x (-0.2308) = -0.0692

5. Add up the expected values:
Combine the expected values for each outcome to get the overall expected value of the bet.

In this example:

* Expected value for Team A: 0.2222
* Expected value for Team B: -0.0692
* Overall expected value: 0.2222 + (-0.0692) = 0.1530

In this case, the expected value of the bet is approximately 15.3%. This means that, over a large number of independent bets, you would expect to earn a return of around 15.3% above your initial bet.

Keep in mind that this calculation assumes the market odds are accurate and doesn't take into account any potential edge or bias in the market.

Remember, expected value is just an estimate, and actual results may vary due to factors like team performance, injuries, and other external factors that affect the game's outcome.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any further questions