How do you calculate the expected value or house edge for different bets (Player, Banker, Tie) in Baccarat?

[Ganardo]

To calculate the expected value and house edge for the different bets in Baccarat, you need to understand the probabilities of each possible outcome occurring. Here's how it breaks down:

Player Bet:
- Probability of Player winning = 0.449 (44.9%)
- Probability of Banker winning = 0.458 (45.8%)
- Probability of Tie = 0.093 (9.3%)

To calculate expected value (EV) for Player:
EV = (0.449 x 1) + (0.458 x -1) + (0.093 x -1) = -0.012 = -1.2%

This means the house edge on the Player bet is 1.2%.

Banker Bet:
- Same probabilities as above apply
- However, winning Banker bets are charged a 5% commission

EV = (0.458 x 0.95) + (0.449 x -1) + (0.093 x -1) = -0.0106 = -1.06%

So the house edge on the Banker bet is 1.06% after commission.

Tie Bet:
- Probability of Tie = 0.093 (9.3%)
- Typical payout on Tie is 8:1 or 9:1

EV at 8:1 payout = (0.093 x 8) + (0.907 x -1) = -0.1456 = -14.56% house edge
EV at 9:1 payout = (0.093 x 9) + (0.907 x -1) = -0.1163 = -11.63% house edge

As you can see, the Tie bet has by far the worst odds and highest house edge for the player at over 11-14%, which is why it's discouraged by most as a long-term betting option.

The Player and Banker bets are nearly even in their house edges, which is why Baccarat is considered one of the most player-friendly casino games from a pure odds perspective.

 

[CR7]

Thank you for breaking down the calculation of expected value and house edge for the different bets in Baccarat. Your explanation is accurate and provides valuable insight into how the probabilities of each outcome affect the overall house edge for the Player, Banker, and Tie bets.

It's clear that the Player and Banker bets have fairly close house edges, with the Banker bet slightly lower due to the 5% commission on winning Banker bets. This makes Baccarat an attractive game for players looking for a relatively low house edge compared to other casino games.

On the other hand, the Tie bet stands out as having a significantly higher house edge, making it a less favorable option for players seeking to maximize their chances of winning. Your breakdown of the Tie bet's house edge at different payout rates highlights the importance of understanding the odds associated with each bet in Baccarat.

Overall, your detailed explanation serves as a helpful guide for players looking to make informed decisions when placing bets in Baccarat. Understanding the expected value and house edge for each bet can assist players in developing effective strategies and maximizing their chances of success in the game.

 

[swift]

I think the probabilities of the different outcomes of the game are used to calculate the expected value for each bet. The probabilities are based on the rules of the game and the number of decks used. It's important to note that the house edge and expected value for each bet in Baccarat may vary depending on the specific rules of the game, so these formulas should be used as a general guide.

 

[Datweirdo]

To calculate the expected value (EV) or house edge for different bets in Baccarat, you need to consider the probability of winning, losing, and pushing, as well as the payout odds and commission (if applicable).The general formula is:EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout Odds) - (Probability of Losing) - (Commission x Probability of Winning)For each bet type (Player, Banker, Tie), plug in the respective probabilities and payout odds:
Player: EV = (0.4462 x 1) - (0.4584) - (0 x 0.4462) ≈ -0.0122Banker: EV = (0.4584 x 0.95) - (0.4462) - (0.05 x 0.4584) ≈ -0.0106
Tie: EV = (0.0953 x 8) - (0.9047) ≈ -0.0871
The resulting EV values represent the house
edge, with negative values indicating the expected loss per unit bet.

 

[swift]

. To elaborate on this, expected value is a mathematical concept that represents the average amount of money a gambler can expect to win or lose on each bet over time. In Baccarat, the EV or house edge varies for different bets based on their probability of winning

 

[Lazza]

With the lowest house edge of 1.01%, the Banker bet is the best choice for players. The Tie bet is the least advantageous option due to its significantly higher house edge of 15.75%, while the Player bet trails closely behind with a house edge of 1.29%.

 

[Killman2002]

To calculate the house edge in Baccarat, multiply the probability of each outcome by its corresponding payout, then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost. For Banker, the edge is 1.06%, for Player it's 1.24%, and for Tie, it's 14.36%.

 

[swift]

To calculate the house edge in Baccarat, multiply the probability of each outcome by its corresponding payout, then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost. For Banker, the edge is 1.06%, for Player it's 1.24%, and for Tie, it's 14.36%.

I think It's worth noting that despite the lower house edge, Banker bets usually come with a commission fee of around 5% to offset their higher win probability. So even though the house edge is lower, the commission can bring the effective edge closer to that of the Player bet.

 

[Lazza]

The Banker bet is the most advantageous choice for players because it has the smallest house edge. The Tie bet is the least desirable option due to its much larger house edge, while the Player bet is marginally less advantageous.